A weather system gathering strength over the Bay of Bengal has put two eastern coastal states on high alert, with forecasters warning that it could arrive on the Andhra Pradesh coast as a very severe cyclonic storm on the morning of October 28. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has tracked the system step by step as it organised itself over warm sea waters, and both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha have activated their disaster response machinery well ahead of landfall.
The system began as a well-marked low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal. By Saturday evening it had concentrated into a depression, positioned roughly 820 kilometres east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and about 910 kilometres east-southeast of Kakinada. Forecasters said it was likely to move nearly southwards at first, strengthening into a deep depression on Sunday before curving back towards the west-northwest.
According to the IMD's projected track, the system should become a cyclonic storm over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal by Monday morning, and then intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay by around Tuesday morning.
Its final approach is expected to carry it towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, where it is forecast to cross between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of Wednesday, October 28, as a very severe cyclonic storm.
At the time of crossing, the storm is expected to carry maximum sustained winds of 115 to 125 kilometres per hour, with gusts reaching up to 140 kilometres per hour. In the IMD's classification scale, a very severe cyclonic storm ranks among the most powerful categories of tropical cyclone, second only to the extremely severe and super cyclonic storm grades.
For comparison, last year's cyclone Montha, which affected the same coastline, was classified only as a severe cyclonic storm, a step below the intensity now being forecast.
The warning has triggered a wide-ranging preparedness effort in Andhra Pradesh. The state government has asked district administrations in coastal districts to remain on alert, with control rooms activated to monitor the safety of more than 30,000 fishing boats spread across a dozen coastal districts. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea, and those already out at sea have been told to return to shore immediately.
Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is forecast for parts of the state between October 26 and 29, with coastal districts and the Yanam region expected to bear the brunt, along with thunderstorms and lightning in some interior areas.
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has directed officials to stay alert and to prepare a comprehensive plan covering flood management and water conservation, so that the state can respond quickly to both the storm surge and the heavy rain that will follow. District officials have been told to keep evacuation routes, relief shelters and emergency supplies ready, and to watch low-lying areas that are most vulnerable to flooding.
In Odisha, the response has been equally swift. Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi reviewed the state's preparedness on Saturday after the system intensified into a depression, and directed officials to give top priority to public safety, evacuation and emergency response, with a stated objective of zero casualties.
The state has activated its disaster response and mitigation machinery across southern and coastal districts, which are expected to receive the heaviest rainfall and the strongest winds on the Odisha side of the storm.
Five districts in southern Odisha — Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri — are likely to be the most affected, according to state assessments, with gusty winds of 70 to 90 kilometres per hour and heavy rainfall expected there. Educational institutions in those five districts, including schools, colleges and Anganwadi centres, will remain closed on October 28 and 29 as a precaution.
Fishermen along both the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts have been warned against venturing into the sea.
Odisha has placed 60 teams of the Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force (ODRAF) and 17 teams of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) on alert, along with fire service teams, and has readied cyclone and flood shelters. Officials have been told to prioritise the evacuation of people from low-lying and vulnerable areas, and to move patients and pregnant women to health facilities in advance.
Plans are also in place to restore roads, electricity and drinking water supplies quickly once the storm passes, and to protect standing crops wherever possible.
The IMD has issued red warnings for several districts in both states. In Odisha, red alerts apply to Puri, Ganjam and Gajapati on October 27, expanding on October 28 to cover Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri, with the possibility of extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 20 centimetres in 24 hours in isolated places.
In Andhra Pradesh, red warnings cover Krishna and Bapatla on October 27, and a wider set of districts — including Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Anakapalli, Kakinada, Konaseema, East and West Godavari, Eluru, NTR, Krishna, Guntur and Bapatla — on October 28.
Beyond the immediate landfall zone, the storm's influence is expected to extend well inland, bringing widespread rain to southern Odisha and coastal Andhra Pradesh, with rough to very rough sea conditions along the entire Odisha coast. Squally winds and coastal surges are likely, and district administrations are preparing for flash floods, waterlogging and damage to vulnerable structures such as kutcha houses, power and communication poles, roads and standing crops.
The timing of the storm, arriving just as the post-monsoon cyclone season reaches its peak over the Bay of Bengal, is a reminder of how quickly conditions can change over these waters in October and November. Warm sea surface temperatures and favourable atmospheric conditions allow depressions to intensify rapidly, which is why forecasters and disaster management agencies track every stage of a system's development and update their bulletins several times a day.
Residents of coastal districts have been advised to keep a close watch on official weather bulletins, avoid unnecessary travel during the storm's passage, secure loose objects around their homes, and move to designated shelters if local authorities ask them to do so. Emergency helplines and control rooms in both states are expected to remain operational through the landfall period and the days that follow, when the focus will shift to relief, restoration and damage assessment.
As the system continues its journey across the Bay of Bengal, the next IMD bulletins will refine the landfall point and the expected wind speeds. For now, the message from both state governments is consistent: preparations are under way, rescue teams are in position, and the priority is to ensure that no life is lost when the storm comes ashore.
(Reporting based on The Hindu and The Financial Express.)