Cyclone Arnab has strengthened into a very severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal and is now hurtling towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, where it is expected to make landfall on Wednesday morning with winds strong enough to uproot trees, snap power lines and damage weak structures along the shoreline.
The India Meteorological Department said the storm is likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, by the forenoon of Wednesday, October 28. At the time of landfall, the weather office expects maximum sustained wind speeds of 115 to 125 kilometres per hour, with gusts reaching up to 140 kilometres per hour.
The latest bulletin brings the threat sharply into focus for millions of people living in coastal Andhra Pradesh. The weather department has issued a red warning for the Andhra Pradesh coast and the adjoining south Odisha coast, and eleven districts of Andhra Pradesh have been placed on red alert for Wednesday as the storm closes in.
According to the India Meteorological Department, Cyclone Arnab moved west-northwestwards at a speed of 25 kilometres per hour during the six hours before 2.30 am on Tuesday, October 27. At that time it was centred around 300 kilometres southeast of Visakhapatnam, 360 kilometres east-southeast of Kakinada and 380 kilometres south of Gopalpur in Odisha. Other estimates put it about 460 kilometres from Machilipatnam and 530 kilometres from Bapatla on Tuesday morning.
The storm is expected to continue on its west-northwestward path until Tuesday evening before turning northwestwards and heading straight for the coast. The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority has said the same track is reflected in its own assessments, with its managing director Prakhar Jain stating that the cyclone will hold its present course until Tuesday evening and then veer towards the shoreline.
Cyclone Arnab, pronounced as "Ornab", is the first cyclonic storm of the 2026 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. It intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm on Monday night, a significant step up in strength that has prompted the red warning for the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha.
A very severe cyclonic storm is among the most powerful categories of tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, and the forecast wind speeds leave little room for complacency in the districts directly in its path.
The red alert for October 28 covers Eluru, NTR, Krishna, Konaseema, Kakinada, East Godavari, West Godavari, Guntur, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Anakapalli and Visakhapatnam districts. Extremely heavy rainfall is forecast in Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari and Eluru districts, while heavy to extremely heavy rain is also likely in parts of Srikakulam, Manyam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Polavaram, Anakapalli, NTR, Krishna, Guntur and Bapatla.
The wider picture is one of a storm whose influence will stretch far beyond the point of landfall. The weather department has warned of isolated extremely heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on October 27 and 28, over Odisha on October 28, over Chhattisgarh on October 28 and 29, and over east Uttar Pradesh on October 29.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely at isolated places over Odisha, Vidarbha, Telangana, east Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar between October 27 and 30. Alerts have been sounded in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Puducherry, and preparations have been stepped up to deal with the possible impact.
On the ground in Andhra Pradesh, a massive disaster response effort is already under way. Preliminary assessments indicate that sixteen districts, covering thousands of villages and urban areas, lie in the cyclone's direct path. Authorities have prepared 1,763 cyclone shelters and 2,907 control rooms, and more than 3,185 nodal officers have been deployed for relief operations.
Teams of the National Disaster Response Force and the State Disaster Response Force have been positioned in eleven high-risk districts, and evacuations of people from vulnerable areas are under way.
Public access to beaches has been banned, and movement on coastal roads is being restricted as the storm approaches. All fishing vessels have returned to shore and been secured, and fishermen have been advised to stay away from the sea. Special medical arrangements have been made, and thousands of emergency water tankers have been kept ready so that drinking water supply is not disrupted in the aftermath.
Citizens in vulnerable regions have been urged to stay indoors and follow official instructions.
The early signs of the storm's approach are already visible. An orange alert has been issued for Visakhapatnam, where light rain has already been reported. In the next few hours, places such as Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Anakapalli are forecast to receive light thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds reaching 50 to 60 kilometres per hour. These are the outer effects of a system that will grow much stronger as its centre nears the coast.
The timing of the landfall matters. A forenoon crossing on Wednesday means the worst of the winds and rain will arrive in daylight, which helps rescue teams operate, but it also means coastal communities will face the full force of the storm after a night of deteriorating weather. Officials have repeatedly stressed that people in low-lying areas and in houses with weak roofs should move to shelters before conditions worsen, rather than waiting until the storm is overhead.
Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in October are not unusual. The post-monsoon months are the most active period for cyclonic storms in the region, as warm sea surface temperatures and favourable atmospheric conditions allow depressions to gather strength quickly. What makes each storm dangerous is the combination of wind, rain and storm surge, and in a densely populated coastal belt, even a small shift in track can change which districts bear the brunt.
For Andhra Pradesh, the memory of past cyclones has shaped a preparedness system built around early warnings, shelters and large-scale evacuations. The network of cyclone shelters along the coast, the control rooms tracking the storm around the clock, and the pre-positioning of disaster response teams are all part of that system, and they are now being tested once again.
Odisha is also watching the storm closely. Although the forecast landfall point lies on the Andhra Pradesh coast, the adjoining south Odisha coast is under warning, and heavy rain is expected over the state on Wednesday. Authorities in Odisha have experience of cyclones making landfall further south and still causing flooding and disruption in their northern districts, and the state administration is expected to remain on alert until the system weakens after crossing land.
As Tuesday progresses, the focus will shift to the final hours before landfall. Weather officials will issue updated bulletins on the storm's position, intensity and track, and district administrations will decide on further evacuations, closure of schools and suspension of transport services. The storm is expected to weaken after crossing the coast, but heavy rain may continue inland for a day or more, raising the risk of waterlogging and flooding in low-lying areas.
For now, the message from the weather office and the disaster management authorities is consistent: the storm is strong, its path is becoming clearer, and the hours before landfall are the time to prepare, not to wait. Residents of the coastal districts have been asked to keep track of official bulletins, avoid venturing to the seafront, secure loose objects around their homes, and move to designated shelters if advised by local officials.
The coming day will show how well those preparations hold. With winds of up to 140 kilometres per hour forecast at landfall and extremely heavy rain expected across a wide swathe of the coast, Cyclone Arnab is set to be a serious test for Andhra Pradesh's coastal defences and its disaster response machinery.
(Reporting based on The Indian Express, Republic World and Oneindia.)