Cyclonic storm Arnab has weakened into a deep depression and is expected to lose further strength through Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, a day after the storm crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast and left a trail of heavy rain, flooded roads and damaged crops across eastern India.
In its latest bulletin on Thursday morning, the weather department said the system was very likely to weaken into a depression during the morning and then into a well-marked low pressure area by the evening. The weakening marks the final phase of a storm that arrived on the coast as a very severe cyclonic storm, but officials warned that the danger from rain has not passed, with several states still facing the prospect of heavy downpours, gusty winds and localised flooding.
Arnab crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam in the early hours of Wednesday. The landfall process, which began in the small hours of the morning, was completed by around 8.30 am, with the centre of the storm moving fully onto land. At the time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated at 125 to 135 kilometres per hour, gusting to 150 kilometres per hour.
Within hours, the storm had lost much of its punch. By Wednesday evening it had weakened first into a severe cyclonic storm and then into a deep depression, moving north-northwestwards over land. On Thursday morning, the deep depression was centred about 60 kilometres south of Malkangiri in Odisha, moving northwards at roughly 15 kilometres per hour, according to the IMD.
The human cost of the storm is already becoming clear in Andhra Pradesh, where five people have died. Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has announced a relief and compensation package for affected families, farmers, fishermen and businesses, and has spoken to Union Home Minister Amit Shah to seek the Centre's assistance in dealing with extensive damage to crops, houses, roads and power infrastructure in several coastal districts.
Rainfall figures from the storm's passage underline its intensity. Several places in north coastal Andhra Pradesh recorded exceptionally heavy rain, with Garividi in Vizianagaram district receiving 26 centimetres, and Anakapalli, Srungavarapukota, Vepada and Cheepurupalle each recording around 25 centimetres. Visakhapatnam city itself received 22 centimetres, while Bheemunipatnam recorded 24 centimetres.
The IMD categorised the rain in Visakhapatnam, Anakapalli, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts as extremely heavy.
In Odisha, at least 17 districts in the southern part of the state have been affected by heavy rainfall triggered by the storm, Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi said. The state government has kept its administrative machinery on alert, with particular attention to districts in the south where rivers and drains are running high and low-lying areas remain waterlogged.
IMD Bhubaneswar Director Manorama Mohanty said a red warning had been issued for six districts, with wind speeds of 60 to 70 kilometres per hour, gusting up to 80 to 85 kilometres per hour, expected in some areas. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea until October 29.
The disruption has extended well beyond the coast. At least 22 express and passenger train services have been cancelled or suspended between October 27 and November 5 because of the severe weather. Among the major routes affected are the Visakhapatnam-Kirandul and Rourkela-Jagdalpur services, most of which stand cancelled between October 29 and November 4, while other services, including the Howrah-Jagdalpur Samaleswari Express, have had their departure schedules altered.
More than 58,000 people were evacuated as a precaution before the storm struck, as authorities moved residents from vulnerable coastal and low-lying areas to relief camps. Damage assessments are now under way across the affected districts, with early reports pointing to extensive losses to standing crops, houses and electricity networks. Officials have said the full scale of the damage will only become clear once floodwaters recede and survey teams reach interior areas.
Even as Arnab fades, the IMD has forecast that its remnants will continue to influence weather across a wide swathe of the country. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely on Thursday in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha. Heavy rain is also forecast at isolated places in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, coastal Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Sikkim.
North India is not exempt from the unsettled weather. Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab could see thunderstorms accompanied by isolated hailstorms, with thundersqualls carrying winds of 50 to 60 kilometres per hour also possible. East Rajasthan could see isolated hailstorms, while parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and coastal Andhra Pradesh may experience lightning, thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Rainfall is expected to remain fairly widespread over east Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi on October 29 and 30.
In Telangana, isolated places in 12 districts are likely to receive thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds on Thursday. The state has also offered Andhra Pradesh help in restoring power supply after the storm damaged electricity infrastructure along the coast. In Kerala, rainfall activity is likely to ease considerably, and daytime temperatures are expected to rise noticeably.
Kolkata and much of Gangetic West Bengal are likely to receive light to moderate rain or thundershowers until Friday, October 30, according to the IMD, with rainfall easing from October 31 to light showers at one or two places. Yellow alerts have been issued for Kolkata and districts including Howrah, Hooghly and North 24 Parganas for October 28 and 29, as thunderstorms with gusty winds of 30 to 40 kilometres per hour and lightning are very likely at one or two places.
South 24 Parganas and East and West Midnapore face stronger gusty winds of 40 to 50 kilometres per hour on both days.
Looking ahead, the IMD has also flagged the possibility of a fresh low-pressure area forming over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining areas within the next 24 hours, under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation extending up to 5.8 kilometres above mean sea level. Forecasters will watch that system closely, but for now the immediate focus remains on relief and recovery in the areas Arnab has already battered.
For residents of the affected districts, the advice remains straightforward: stay away from waterlogged roads and swollen streams, avoid unnecessary travel, and follow instructions from district administrations and local authorities. With the storm weakening but rain continuing, the next 24 hours will still demand caution across much of eastern and central India.
(Reporting based on The Hindu, Mathrubhumi English and Down To Earth.)