Barely four days after very severe cyclone Arnab made landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast, the state is once again facing the prospect of another cyclone, with the India Meteorological Department warning that a fresh weather system over the Bay of Bengal is gathering strength and could strike the coast on November 3.
The system, which began as a low-pressure area over the south Andaman Sea on October 29, a day after Arnab crossed the coast, intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area on Saturday morning over the south-east Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Andaman Sea.
By Saturday evening it had concentrated into a depression, centred about 960 kilometres east-southeast of Chennai, 980 kilometres southeast of Visakhapatnam, 1,030 kilometres southeast of Machilipatnam and 1,080 kilometres east-southeast of Ongole.
The Meteorological Department said the depression is very likely to intensify into a deep depression over the south-east Bay of Bengal within 12 hours, then into a cyclonic storm over the south-west and west-central Bay by Sunday, and further into a severe cyclonic storm by November 2. It is likely to reach the west-central Bay by November 2 and approach the Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur in the early hours of November 3.
Once the system is classified as a cyclonic storm, it will be named Murasu, a name contributed by India that means drum in Tamil.
The forecast wind speeds underline why officials are taking the system seriously, even though it is expected to be weaker than its predecessor.
India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the system is likely to bring winds of 80 to 90 kilometres per hour, gusting to 100 kilometres per hour, at the time of its approach to the coast, while later bulletins put the figure at 100 to 110 kilometres per hour, gusting to 120 kilometres per hour, as a severe cyclonic storm.
Arnab, by comparison, made landfall with sustained wind speeds of around 130 to 150 kilometres per hour and was classified as a very severe cyclonic storm.
Rainfall is expected to be the more widespread hazard. The department has forecast very heavy rainfall over Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema on November 2 and 3, with isolated extremely heavy falls. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam are expected to receive isolated extremely heavy rainfall on Monday, followed by thunder squalls with near-cyclonic wind speeds of 50 to 60 kilometres per hour, gusting to 70 kilometres per hour, on Tuesday.
The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority said scattered moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in Krishna, Guntur, Bapatla, Prakasam, Markapuram and Nellore districts on November 1, and scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall in Eluru, West Godavari, NTR, Krishna, Guntur, Bapatla, Palnadu, Prakasam, Markapuram, Nellore and Tirupati districts on November 2.
Sea conditions are likely to remain rough from November 1, worsening on November 2, with squally winds of 40 to 50 kilometres per hour, gusting to 60 kilometres per hour, along and off the Andhra Pradesh, north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts. Fishermen have been advised to stay off the coast from November 2 to 4.
The department issued a pre-cyclone watch, or yellow message, for the Andhra Pradesh coast on Saturday evening, and said it would provide a more precise location, timing and advisory as fresh assessments are issued.
The back-to-back systems are unusual, and meteorologists have an explanation. Mohapatra told reporters that the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a large-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation that influences rainfall and cyclone formation, is very active and in phase 3, sitting near the Bay of Bengal and helping the genesis of two cyclones one after another.
Very warm sea-surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius, coupled with moderate to low vertical wind shear, are also helping the new system develop.
India usually records four to five cyclones a year, with three to four typically developing during the October to December post-monsoon season and one to two during the pre-monsoon period of April to June. This year, however, there were no cyclones during either the pre-monsoon or the monsoon season. Arnab was the first, and the new system would be the second.
Despite the two systems developing in quick succession, the department expects November 2026 to be drier than usual across much of the country.
Arnab's passage is still fresh in the memory of coastal communities. The cyclone originated as a low-pressure area over the south-east Bay on October 23, rapidly intensified into a cyclone within four days and crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts on the intervening night of October 27 and 28, near the Kakinada-Narsapur coast. It left a trail of destruction in its wake, damaging homes, crops and infrastructure and disrupting normal life across coastal districts.
Many of those districts are now being asked to prepare all over again.
The state administration has begun readying its response. District administrations in the likely affected areas have been alerted, and the disaster management authority is tracking the system closely. Experience from Arnab, where early warnings and evacuation efforts limited the human cost, is expected to shape the response this time.
Officials have urged residents in low-lying and coastal areas to follow official advisories, avoid venturing into the sea and keep emergency supplies ready.
For farmers, the timing is particularly cruel. Coastal Andhra Pradesh is in the middle of the harvest season for several crops, and heavy rain and strong winds at this stage can flatten standing crops and flood fields. The back-to-back cyclones also raise the risk of waterlogging in areas that have not yet fully drained from Arnab's rains.
The exact landfall location cannot yet be determined, Mohapatra cautioned, because the system is still several days away from the coast. The most likely track currently indicates landfall along southern Andhra Pradesh, between Nellore and Narsapur, but forecasters will refine that estimate as the system intensifies and moves west-northwestwards. Residents and officials alike will be watching each bulletin closely.
What is certain is that Andhra Pradesh faces another anxious few days. A state that has barely begun to count the cost of one cyclone must now prepare for a second, with the same districts, the same coastline and many of the same people in the firing line. The hope is that early warning, preparation and a slightly weaker storm will keep the damage limited. The fear is that a coast already battered by Arnab has little resilience left to spare.
(Reporting based on The Hindu BusinessLine, The Times of India, The Hindu and The Indian Express.)