NEW DELHI: The Maldives' opposition has warned that President Mohamed Muizzu's government risks reviving anti-India politics in the run-up to the country's next presidential election, after the island nation signed a series of agreements with Pakistan, including pacts covering defence and maritime security.
Abdulla Shahid, the Leader of the Opposition and a former foreign minister, has demanded that the government disclose the details of the deals to parliamentary committees, arguing that secrecy around them is breeding speculation and mistrust.
Shahid, who is seeking the leadership of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party ahead of the presidential election in 2028, made the remarks during a visit to India, where he spoke to Indian media about the direction of his country's foreign policy.
His comments reflect growing unease within the opposition about a shift in the Maldives' external relationships, and about what that shift could mean for the country's long-standing ties with India, its closest neighbour and most consistent partner in times of crisis.
President Muizzu travelled to Pakistan on a state visit from October 20 to 22, the first visit by a Maldivian leader to Pakistan since 2015. During the visit, the two countries exchanged 20 agreements covering areas including transport, education, health and defence. According to the Maldivian defence ministry, two memoranda of understanding on defence cooperation were signed: one on general defence cooperation and another on strengthening ties in maritime safety and security.
Muizzu also met Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff and Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, in Islamabad, where the two sides discussed regional security and closer defence cooperation.
Shahid has questioned why the details of those agreements, particularly the ones touching on defence and maritime security, have not been shared with the relevant parliamentary committees. "I have been requesting the government to share details with the parliamentary relevant committees, so that there will be no room for speculation," he said in one interview.
Speaking to another outlet, he put it more bluntly: "The government should immediately share with the two foreign committees of the Parliament and let the sense of confidence prevail, so that there will be no room for speculation and no room for mistrust once again."
The opposition leader's concern is not only about transparency. He has also warned that the government, having failed to deliver on its domestic promises, could turn to foreign policy as a tool of electoral mobilisation as the 2028 election approaches.
"My fear is that since President Muizzu has not been able to deliver anything substantial on any of the promises that he has made, in the run-up to the next elections, he may create this platform of hatred and cultivate bogus narratives," Shahid said. In another interview, he was more direct: "The President is trying to make India the issue again, because for him, he hasn't been able to perform. He hasn't been able to provide any development or deliver on any of the promises, and therefore, come next election again, he will try to create some narrative on hate."
That warning carries particular weight because of the history of the "India Out" campaign. Muizzu rose to power in 2023 on the back of a campaign that questioned the presence of Indian military personnel in the Maldives and accused the previous government of compromising the country's sovereignty. The campaign strained relations between Male and New Delhi for a period, before Muizzu's government moved to repair ties and the relationship became cordial for most of his tenure.
Shahid's argument is that the political playbook of 2023 could be dusted off if the government needs a rallying cause ahead of the next vote, and that the recent embrace of Pakistan provides the raw material for such a narrative.
Shahid has also revisited one of the central claims of the 2023 campaign. During the campaign, Muizzu's side accused the previous government of harbouring around 2,000 Indian troops and building an Indian naval base at the Uthuru Thila Falhu naval facility. Shahid has demanded an apology for what he describes as a misleading narrative, pointing out that the current administration continues to operate the same platforms using the same Indian civilian technical personnel.
"President Muizzu misled the public tremendously," he said. "He accused us of harbouring 2,000 Indian troops and building an Indian naval base. Yet, his administration continues to operate those exact platforms using the same Indian civilian technical personnel. Where are the 2,000 military troops he claimed were here? He owes the people of the Maldives a public apology for inventing a narrative of hate."
Former President Mohamed Nasheed has voiced similar concerns from a different angle. In a post on social media following Muizzu's Pakistan visit, Nasheed warned that expanding military ties with Pakistan could deepen India's concerns and put the Maldives at risk, arguing that the country must not get caught between rival regional powers.
He also noted that the Maldives had avoided an economic default only because India extended the repayment period on a currency swap facility, and questioned the timing of the outreach to Pakistan. His warning underlines a strategic reality: the Maldives sits astride key shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean, and its foreign policy choices are watched closely in New Delhi, Islamabad and Beijing alike.
For India, the stakes are significant. The Maldives occupies a strategically important position close to key maritime routes, and it has long been a major recipient of Indian development assistance and emergency support. India was the first responder during the 2004 tsunami, during a drinking-water crisis in Male in 2014, and during the coronavirus pandemic, when it supplied vaccines and medical assistance.
Shahid has repeatedly stressed that bond, describing the relationship as time-tested and noting that India has consistently been the first to help in emergencies. "The Maldivian people are aligned with India, because India has been the first responder," he said. "India has always been there consistently, our friend. And India is our immediate neighbour."
Shahid has also rejected the suggestion that his party's close relationship with India makes it politically vulnerable. "I am not aligned to one country. I am an internationalist," he said, arguing that proximity and history make close relations with India necessary rather than a liability.
"There is nothing wrong in recognising the time-tested historical bond that exists between our two peoples," he added, saying the relationship was something the Maldives should continue to celebrate.
Domestic politics form the other half of Shahid's critique. He has argued that the Muizzu government remains deeply unpopular, that it has failed to deliver on its promises, and that it could attempt to influence the 2028 election, including through a plan to introduce electronic voting.
In a small population where physical ballots have produced results within two or three hours since the 2008 constitution, he said, electronic voting could undermine public confidence without any practical need.
The Maldivian Democratic Party has meanwhile secured gains in recent local council elections, while voters rejected Muizzu's proposal to hold parliamentary and local council elections simultaneously in a referendum, developments the opposition reads as signs of public discontent.
Shahid has also pointed to economic stress, including rising inflation, currency pressures and a black-market dollar rate far above the official peg, as well as policy shifts affecting the tourism industry, which remains the backbone of the Maldivian economy. Erratic policy changes, he argued, risk destroying investor confidence in the very industry that sustains the country's people.
The Maldives government spokesperson did not reply to a request for a response to Shahid's comments. The government has previously defended its foreign policy as one of engaging with all partners, and Muizzu has in the past described his approach as prioritising the Maldives' interests with every country.
Whether the Pakistan agreements represent a genuine strategic reorientation or simply a broadening of diplomatic ties is a question that only greater transparency can settle, which is precisely why the opposition is pressing for the documents to be placed before parliament.
As the 2028 election draws closer, the debate over the Maldives' place in the region is likely to intensify. The country's voters will have to weigh competing visions: one that leans on the historic partnership with India, and another that seeks deeper ties with Pakistan, China and other partners.
Shahid's intervention suggests that the opposition intends to fight that debate openly, and that it will treat transparency over defence agreements as a test of the government's good faith. For India, which has invested heavily in the relationship, the coming months will be watched with close attention, and with the hope that the partnership that has endured for decades is not sacrificed to electoral calculation.
(Reporting based on The Hindu and WION.)