NEW DELHI: When the INDIA bloc gathers at Delhi's Ramlila Maidan on November 1, the Congress will be measuring far more than the size of a crowd. The rally, billed by the opposition as its biggest public demonstration yet in its campaign against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, has become a test of organisation, unity and leadership for Rahul Gandhi and his party.
The opposition says it hopes to bring more than a million people, or ten lakh, to the historic ground in central Delhi. Even half that number, party strategists believe, could be presented as a success. That arithmetic alone explains why the build-up has been so intense, and why the days leading to the rally have been marked by disputes over permission, protests from traders and a careful, state-by-state mobilisation drive.
The rally is the street-level peak of a campaign that began with allegations about the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. The opposition alleges that eligible voters have been wrongly removed during the revision exercise, while the Election Commission maintains that the exercise is designed to remove ineligible entries and improve the accuracy of the rolls.
From protests in Parliament, the campaign has moved to demonstrations on the streets and legal challenges before the Supreme Court. The November 1 gathering is intended to show that the issue can sustain a mass movement, not merely a parliamentary argument.
For the Congress in particular, the stakes go beyond the immediate demand for the Chief Election Commissioner's resignation. A large, disciplined turnout would allow the party to claim that it still commands the organisational machinery needed to run a nationwide campaign. A thin turnout, by contrast, would invite questions about whether its support extends beyond its core base, and whether it can carry its allies with it.
That is why party leaders have treated mobilisation as a central task in itself, rather than as a routine logistical exercise.
Congress general secretary for organisation K C Venugopal has toured states around Delhi in recent weeks, meeting party leaders and functionaries to coordinate the effort. According to reports, specific turnout targets have been assigned to different states, with Haryana expected to bring the largest contingent, an effort entrusted to MP Deepender Hooda.
The party's units in Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have also been given quotas, and its frontal organisations have been asked to bring thousands of supporters each.
Leaders from Delhi and neighbouring states have been meeting national office-bearers to fine-tune the plans, and earlier mobilisation for a march to the Supreme Court on October 12, which drew more than fifteen thousand people according to party estimates, has been cited as a benchmark for what the organisation can achieve.
The run-up has not been smooth. The Congress had planned to hold a mock parliament ahead of the rally. Initially scheduled for October 28, the event was shifted to the Ashok Hotel in Delhi, but permission was denied, reportedly because the hotel stands near the Prime Minister's residence.
The party then proposed holding the mock parliament at Ramlila Maidan on November 30, but leaders say Delhi Police has not granted permission for that either. The Delhi Police has, however, granted permission for the November 1 rally itself, issuing a no-objection certificate covering October 25 to November 3, with the venue reserved by the party for the programme.
A second confrontation has come from Delhi's traders. The Chamber of Trade and Industry has warned that a rally at Ramlila Maidan during the peak festive shopping season could severely disrupt business in more than twenty wholesale and retail markets within a few kilometres of the ground, including Chandni Chowk, Sadar Bazar, Chawri Bazar, Bhagirath Palace, Khari Baoli, Kashmere Gate and Karol Bagh.
The traders' body has put the potential loss at up to ten thousand crore rupees, and has urged Rahul Gandhi and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge to postpone the rally until after Bhai Dooj on November 10, or to shift it to an alternative venue such as Burari Ground or the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium. It has also said traders in Delhi have already lost around three thousand crore rupees in October because of rallies, marches and road closures in central Delhi.
In a second letter, the traders' body sought a twenty-minute meeting with Gandhi to discuss postponement, offering a simple bargain: if the Congress could convince traders that the rally would boost business, they would withdraw their protest, but if traders could convince Gandhi of the losses, he should postpone.
Gandhi responded by placing responsibility for any disruption on the central government, arguing in a public post that the government itself shuts down the metro, closes roads and imposes restrictions in Delhi, and that the protest would end quickly if the Prime Minister removed the Chief Election Commissioner, whom he described as accused number four.
He also pointed to rising prices and inflation, and argued that when votes are stolen, shops, savings and children's futures are all unsafe.
The Congress, for its part, argues that a large turnout could actually help local markets, with visitors shopping in the area. Traders counter that the vehicles bringing attendees could cause traffic congestion, inconvenience the public and disrupt commercial activity. For now, there appears to be little room for compromise between the two sides, and the exchange has become part of the rally's story in its own right.
The choice of date has drawn a separate line of criticism. The Bharatiya Janata Party has criticised the Congress for holding the rally on November 1, the anniversary of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots, and has accused Gandhi of disregarding the feelings of victims and their families. The opposition has maintained that the date will not change.
Congress leader Pawan Khera has said the BJP is unsettled by the INDIA bloc's earlier mobilisation and is attempting to persuade the party to postpone the rally, but has insisted that the march will happen. Khera has described November 1 not as a democratic disruption but as a celebration of what he called the imminent downfall of the Modi era, and has expressed confidence that the rally will be a grand success.
Gandhi, meanwhile, has thanked the BJP and its allies, with sarcasm, for helping publicise the event.
Ramlila Maidan itself carries a weight that few other venues in Delhi can match. For more than seven decades it has hosted movements and rallies that have set the tone of national politics, and a successful gathering there is often read as a signal of a party's ability to command public attention. The Congress is conscious of that history.
A rally that fills the ground, remains orderly and draws supporters from across northern India would reinforce Gandhi's leadership within the opposition and help hold the INDIA bloc together around a common cause. A rally that falls short would do the opposite, raising doubts about strategy and about whether the campaign against the Election Commission can be carried forward with the same intensity.
That is also why the rally is being watched as a pointer to what comes next. The Congress is planning four more rallies in different parts of the country, although dates have yet to be announced. The INDIA bloc is also expected to hold a public mock impeachment of the Chief Election Commissioner on October 30, where new facts about the working of the Election Commission may be highlighted.
Much will depend on what happens at Ramlila Maidan first. A strong showing could give the Congress the momentum to take its campaign to other parts of the country, while a weak one could force a rethink of tactics.
In the end, the November 1 rally is about more than a single afternoon in central Delhi. It is about whether the Congress can turn an allegation about electoral rolls into a sustained public movement, whether it can manage the practical and political obstacles in its path, from police permissions to traders' protests, and whether Rahul Gandhi can demonstrate that his party remains capable of bringing India to the streets.
The crowd, when it gathers, will be counted in more ways than one.
(Reporting based on NDTV and The Telegraph.)