MUMBAI: Indian stock markets opened on a flat to marginally positive note on Thursday, October 29, as investors weighed mixed global cues, the United States Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady, and persistently high crude oil prices. Early signals from GIFT Nifty pointed to a muted start, and the benchmarks traded in a narrow range in the opening session.
At the opening bell, the 30-share BSE Sensex was up about 41 points at 73,286.75, while the 50-share NSE Nifty was up about 3 points at 22,701.90. About 1,190 shares advanced, 1,035 declined and 155 were unchanged in early trade. TCS, Adani Ports, HCL Technologies, Infosys and Tech Mahindra were among the major gainers on the Nifty, while Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, Shriram Finance, Trent and Hindalco were among the losers.
The cautious opening followed a weak session on Wednesday. The Sensex fell 352.64 points, or 0.48 per cent, to close at 73,246.03, while the Nifty declined 50.90 points, or 0.22 per cent, to settle at 22,698.85. During Wednesday's trade, the Sensex plunged 995 points to an intraday low of 72,603.57 before recovering some of its losses later in the session.
The Nifty slipped below the 22,500 mark during the day, reflecting continued uncertainty and a lack of sustained buying support.
Selling pressure in information technology stocks and in heavyweight Reliance Industries, coupled with elevated crude oil prices and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, weighed on sentiment on Wednesday. The Nifty IT and Nifty Oil and Gas indices each fell about 2 per cent, with Infosys, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries and ONGC among the laggards.
Auto, consumer durables, media and pharma indices rose about 1 per cent each, while Apollo Hospitals, Larsen and Toubro and Trent were among the top gainers. Broader markets outperformed the benchmarks, with the Nifty Midcap index up 0.4 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap index up 0.9 per cent.
"Markets traded volatile on Wednesday and ended marginally lower as elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision weighed on investor sentiment," said Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president for research at Religare Broking. He noted that the Nifty settled around 22,698 after slipping below 22,500 during the session.
The Federal Reserve's decision was the key global event for the day. The US central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged, as widely expected, while describing inflation as still elevated and awaiting further data. Two policymakers had preferred a 25-basis-point hike, a sign of the debate inside the central bank, but the decision itself removed one source of uncertainty for markets.
Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday after the decision. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 97.53 points, or 0.19 per cent, to 52,475.10, while the S and P 500 rose 21.37 points, or 0.28 per cent, to 7,743.97. The Nasdaq Composite closed 72.04 points, or 0.27 per cent, higher at 26,549.85. US stock futures, however, remained choppy and range-bound, as investors digested mixed reactions to major technology earnings, including a sharp after-hours fall in Alphabet shares.
Asian markets traded mixed on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied about 1.08 per cent, while South Korea's Kospi and other regional markets moved in different directions as investors reacted to the earnings news. Hong Kong Hang Seng futures indicated a higher opening. The mixed picture in Asia was one reason Indian markets opened without a strong direction.
Crude oil remained a central concern. Brent crude futures hovered around 114 to 115 dollars a barrel as traders assessed risks to regional energy supplies from the conflict in West Asia. For India, a major crude importer, elevated oil prices mean a bigger import bill, pressure on the rupee and a risk to inflation. The rupee opened higher at 95.17 against the dollar on Thursday, but currency traders continued to watch oil and foreign fund flows closely.
For Thursday's session, analysts tracked by market reports pointed to clear technical reference points. For the Nifty, the 22,500 level is an important near-term support, while 22,800 to 22,830 represents a key resistance zone. A sustained move above that range could open the way towards 23,000, while failure to cross it may keep the index in a consolidation phase.
For the Sensex, resistance was seen around 73,500 to 73,800, with the 72,600 to 73,000 zone as important support. These levels are technical reference points rather than guaranteed outcomes, and traders treat them as markers for where buying or selling pressure may emerge.
"The near-term outlook remains cautious, with sustained buying above 22,800 essential to reinforce recovery momentum and improve the broader technical setup," said Ponmudi R, chief executive of Enrich Money, in comments reported ahead of the open.
Beyond the index levels, investors will watch a busy corporate calendar on Thursday. Several major companies, including Coal India, Asian Paints, InterGlobe Aviation, Trent, Laurus Labs and Ambuja Cements, are set to announce their quarterly earnings for the July to September period. Company results have the power to move individual stocks sharply, and with the earnings season under way, stock-specific reactions are likely to drive much of the day's action.
The primary market is also active. The initial public offering of Bombay Coated and Special Steels opens on Thursday, October 29, while the offerings of SFC Environmental Technologies and BLS Polymers close on the same day. New listings and subscription figures will be watched for clues about investor appetite for fresh equity.
Foreign institutional investor activity remains another key variable. Foreign selling has weighed on Indian equities in recent sessions, and traders will look for signs of whether overseas investors are returning or continuing to reduce exposure. Domestic institutional buying has provided some support, but sustained recovery in the benchmarks typically needs both domestic and foreign participation.
For retail investors, the message from Thursday's flat opening is one of patience. Markets are caught between competing forces: a steady US interest rate, high oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia, and a domestic earnings season that is still unfolding. Until one of those forces resolves decisively, benchmarks are likely to trade in a range, with individual stocks offering more opportunity than the index itself.
The day's trade will also be shaped by how crude oil moves and whether the rupee holds its opening gains. A fall in oil prices would ease pressure on both inflation expectations and the currency, while a further rise would renew selling pressure on rate-sensitive and energy-importing sectors. For now, the market's flat start suggests investors are waiting for a clearer signal before committing fresh money in either direction.
This article reports market movements and analyst views. It is not investment advice, and market levels cited are reference points used by traders, not predictions of where indices will close.
(Reporting based on Livemint, NDTV Profit, Moneycontrol, Business Standard and The Times of India.)